​The retirement of large numbers of baby boomer registered nurses (RNs) through 2030 will be offset by "continued strong entry of new RNs into the workforce," project researchers in a study published in the October 2015 issue of Medical Care. Using data from the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey (1979-2000) and American Community Survey (2001-2013), the researchers projected the employment and age of RNs by analyzing employment trends by birth year and age. A decade ago, 20,000 nurses retired annually, and that figure will increase to 80,000 in the next decade as baby boomer RNs age. However, the number of nursing school graduates doubled during the 2000s. Overall, the authors project, the RN workforce will increase from 2.7 million full-time equivalents in 2013 to 3.3 million in 2030. The average age will be highest in 2015, at age 44. However, the authors concede that these projections rely on rates of entry into nursing continuing at their current rate. Further, demand will still exceed supply by 128,000 RNs (4%) as of 2025. "Seeing this coming cliff in nursing, there were national campaigns to encourage more people to go into nursing, which helped provide information about the nursing profession and create interest in a nursing career," said Peter Buerhaus, PhD, RN, FAAN, one of the report's authors, in a September 21, 2015, press release from Montana State University. As the economic recession developed, more students pursued nursing as a profession, and some baby boomers chose to continue working for longer, he noted. However, he stated, "It's important to keep in mind that this doesn't get us out of the woods, the woods just are not as dark and scary as they appeared."

HRC Recommends: Healthcare organizations may wish to project their staffing needs, including nurse types and skill mix, for the near and distant future. They can also engage with community partners (e.g., public schools, community colleges, universities, career retraining programs) to promote the health professions as a career choice.