Simulation Predicts Limited Savings from Medicare Shared Savings Program

October 10, 2012 | Strategic Insights for Health System


After the costs of performance improvement, accountable care organizations may realize limited savings from participation in the Medicare Shared Savings Program, concludes a study published online October 3, 2012, in Health Affairs. The study’s researchers used a simulation model to analyze the effects of the Shared Savings Program quality measures and performance targets on Medicare costs in a simulated population of patients age 65 to 75 with type 2 diabetes. They found that a 10% improvement in performance on diabetes quality measures would reduce Medicare costs only by up to about 1% under the current program model.

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